The risk of a new human influenza pandemic is considered by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to have increased over the last two years, based largely on the risk posed by the H5N1 avian influenza virus, currently circulating in poultry in South East Asia and elsewhere.

History shows that each influenza pandemic is different. We cannot confidently predict what the impact of the next pandemic will be. Much will depend on the characteristics of the virus, such as its clinical attack rate*, the severity of the illness it causes and the resulting case fatality rate**.

These parameters will not be known until the pandemic virus emerges. In order to assist planning, estimates of the impact of an influenza pandemic in today's circumstances have been developed drawing where appropriate on previous pandemics and by scientific modelling of a range of potential scenarios.

For the purpose of Business Continuity, planning should be based on a cumulative total of 25% of workers taking some time off – possibly 5 - 8 working days – over a period of 3 months. This first wave is likely to be followed by a second wave of similar duration. The interval between waves could be several weeks or months. Absenteeism may be more than this either due to a higher rate of illness, the need to care for sick family members or fear of exposure to infection. Past pandemic experience indicates that between 5 - 35% of the workforce may be absent from work. The absentee rate is expected to peak for 1 - 2 weeks at the height of the outbreak (around weeks 8-9).

Recent Risk Assessments:

The Health Protection Agency (HPA) has prepared a risk assessment on the risk from avian influenza to visitors to public parks and open waters. The report concludes that there is no excess risk to visitors and that there should be no restrictions on park visiting. The assessment can be accessed on the Defra website at: www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/diseases/notifiable/disease/ai/wildbirds/index.htm

 

Last Update 18 August 06